July 5th, 2024 at 06:50 am

Anticipated Growth in Canada’s Population to 63 Million

Statistics Canada has released updated population projections, which highlight important demographic changes and present different scenarios for Canada’s population growth between 2023 and 2073. The latest data from Statistics Canada reveals that Canada’s population is expected to experience significant growth in the coming years. In 2023, the population stood at approximately 40.1 million, and projections suggest that it could reach anywhere between 47.1 million and 87.2 million by 2073, depending on various growth scenarios.

It is important to note that these projections are based on careful consideration of recent trends and expert opinions. There are three main scenarios to consider: low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1), and high-growth (HG). According to projections, the population is estimated to reach approximately 62.8 million by 2073 in the medium-growth scenario, which is considered the most likely.

Discover more about the factors that are contributing to Canada’s population growth, which is projected to reach 63 million. Explore the potential effects on Canada’s economy, demographics, and labor market in the following sections.

Effects of Updated Population Projections on Canada’s Population

Canada’s population growth is largely fueled by immigration. Since the 1990s, there has been a significant rise in Canadian immigration, playing a crucial role in the ongoing demographic expansion. On the other hand, it is expected that natural increase, which is the difference between the number of births and deaths, will have a limited impact. This is because the aging population is projected to lead to an increase in deaths, while fertility rates remain consistently low.

Let’s take a closer look at how these projections impact the age distribution, regional demographics, and labor market in Canada.

Age

The projections also emphasize the substantial demographic aging. The projected percentage of the population aged 65 and older is expected to experience a significant increase over the years. By 2073, it is estimated to range between 21.9% and 32.3%, depending on the aging scenario.

The significant rise in population is mainly attributed to the aging of the baby boom generation, as the number of individuals aged 85 and older is projected to increase significantly from 2031 to 2050. The demographic shift will have a substantial impact on the demand for healthcare and related services. On the other hand, there is an anticipated decline in the percentage of children aged 0 to 14, which has been a consistent trend since its highest point in 1962.

Provinces and Territories

Population growth projections differ greatly among Canadian provinces and territories. Ontario and Quebec are predicted to continue being the most populous provinces, but the demographic influence of regions like Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia is expected to grow.

There is a possibility that Canadian provinces or territories, such as Newfoundland and Labrador, could experience a decline in their population size based on various scenarios. The regional differences in population growth will have significant consequences for economic development, resource allocation, and political representation.

Labor Market

Canada’s labor market is poised to undergo transformations due to the country’s expanding and aging population. Canada’s total employment has experienced a 2.4% increase in the year ending June 2023, aligning with the growth of its population. Nevertheless, the aging population may result in a more competitive labor market, potentially causing shortages in sectors like healthcare that must grow to accommodate the rising demand from an older population.

Important Factors Driving the Growth of Canada’s Population

Canada’s population growth is influenced by a variety of important factors, as outlined below.

Immigration Targets

The demographic structure of Canada has been influenced by its immigration policies. Canada has established ambitious immigration targets in order to address the challenges posed by an aging population and to bolster the country’s labor market. As an example, the Canadian government has set a goal of welcoming more than 485,000 new permanent residents in 2024 and 500,000 in 2025. This approach effectively addresses the challenges posed by an aging population and brings about positive outcomes in terms of cultural diversity and economic vitality.

The Rise of Temporary Residents

The number of temporary residents, such as international students and temporary foreign workers, has seen a notable rise. These individuals play a significant role in the economy and frequently go on to become Canadian permanent residents, which further enhances Canada’s population growth. Temporary residents play a crucial role in addressing labor market needs, especially in sectors with skill shortages.

High Life Expectancy

Canada’s population growth is also influenced by the long life expectancy of its residents. Statistics Canada reports that the life expectancy in Canadian society is one of the highest globally, with an average of around 82 years. The increase in longevity has led to a growing proportion of the elderly, which brings both challenges and opportunities for public health and social services.

Important reminder

The population projections generated by Statistics Canada’s Demography Division should not be viewed as predictions for the future. This can be seen as an exercise aimed at exploring the potential future of the Canadian population under different scenarios of change. Statistics Canada consistently publishes multiple scenarios and formulates explicit assumptions about the key factors influencing population growth.

When doing an analysis of the projection results, users are strongly encouraged to carefully explore a number of different situations. It should be brought to your attention that the accuracy of the projections that are generated is dependent on a number of different elements. There is the possibility for unanticipated occurrences, such as economic crises, wars, or natural disasters, to have a large impact on the growth and composition of the population in Canada. According to Statistics Canada, the population forecasts are updated on a regular basis to ensure that they accurately reflect the current environment in which they were generated.

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