June 30th, 2024 at 07:20 am

Canada Express Entry Draw Prediction & Decision Factors | IRCC Latest Update

With the comprehensive ranking system’s CRS score reaching a record high, Canada’s Express Entry system is now more competitive than ever. Although choosing the best applicants to fill positions in Canada’s labor market has always been the system’s main goal, the number and timing of Express Entry drawings have changed over time.

With the introduction of new category-based rounds of invitation in 2023 and the frequent absence of bi-weekly draws, the Express Entry draws have become unpredictable. This article explores the IRCC’s decision-making process around the timing of Express Entry draws and what to expect from the upcoming one.

Pandemic Effect on Express Entry Draws

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a somewhat consistent pattern for Express Entry draws. The draws were traditionally announced by IRCC every two weeks, generally on Wednesdays. There would be between 3,000 and 5,000 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) for permanent residency in each draw, with 470 points serving as the cutoff threshold for the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS).

Although it wasn’t formally required, its consistency showed steadfast policy goals and effective operations. Express Entry draw regularity was disturbed by the start of the coronavirus pandemic. There was a decrease in predictability in the frequency type and quantity of ITAs and CRS cutoffs.

For example, following 2020, there were times when the IRCC conducted draws more frequently to satisfy urgent labor market shortages or suspended them completely because of processing limitations.

Category-based Selection and Increased Draws

In 2023, a big change came about with the implementation of category-based selection. This modification attempted to address certain labor shortages and demographic objectives, including raising immigration from francophone countries. IRCC held an extraordinary 12 Express draws between June 27 and August 15, as opposed to the usual 4–8 draws during comparable periods.

This rise gave hope to the candidates in the pool and demonstrated how flexible the IRCC is in utilizing the Express Entry mechanism to achieve a wider range of policy objectives. The IRCC did, however, temporarily halt the draws before continuing to issue ITAs and holding nine additional draws between September 19 and October 26.

Candidates had to conjecture about the causes motivating the IRCC’s judgments since the organization withheld the reasons for the ensuing delay and drawings. Regular draws were held in the first four months of 2024, but the IRCC temporarily halted them again in May before starting PNP and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws.

There has only been one draw announced for June thus far, and it is exclusive to profiles that have received provincial nominations. It was anticipated that the IRCC would announce the PNP draw first and the second, or all-program draw, the following day, as they had done during the epidemic. However, following the June 19 draw, nothing of the sort occurred—not even a round of invites based on categories.

Key Factors Influencing Draw Frequency

The IRCC considers several important considerations while holding Express Entry lotteries.

1. Immigration levels plan:

The immigration levels plan, which outlines the goals for admissions of permanent residents during the following three years, is released annually by the IRCC. One of the categories used to dissect these goals is the Express Entry scheme. For instance, the IRCC intends to use Express Entry to admit 110,000 immigrants in 2024 and 11,755 in 2025 and 2026.

Included in these numbers are the primary applicants and their qualifying spouses and dependents. The IRCC regularly assesses the number of applications for permanent residence that are pending to accomplish these goals. A bi-weekly round of invitations may be skipped by IRCC if there are enough applicants in the queue to meet present and future targets.

On the other hand, the IRCC will probably hold more draws or issue more ITAs if there aren’t enough applicants.

2. Processing capacity

The ability of IRCC to analyze information is a key factor in draw timing. The agency has to strike a balance between the volume of new applications coming in and its capacity to process them in time for the six-month deadline. For the majority of applications, the IRCC has now met official service criteria by processing Express Entry applications within six months.

To avoid backlogs and uphold processing standards, IRCC may suspend or decrease the frequency of draws during times of high application volumes or operational difficulties.

3. Policy objectives

The policy goals of IRCC are also quite important. One such instance is the implementation of category-based selection. With this strategy, the IRCC can focus on particular demographics and skill sets, including immigrants who speak French or members of other occupation-based groupings.

Immigration policy can be modified to better suit Canada’s changing needs by adjusting the timing and frequency of draws. On the other hand, the frequency of the subsequent category-based draw may also be impacted by the distribution of candidates in the pool under these draws.

4. The labor market needs

The dynamic labor market needs of Canada can impact when drawings for Express Entry are made. For example, there was a greater focus on healthcare personnel during the pandemic. The IRCC may give priority to draws that focus on particular industries or professions where there is a scarcity, which could have an impact on the volume and make-up of ITA issuances.

For instance, as of right now, in 2024, the IRCC has not disclosed any trade occupation targeted draws. The IRCC may not be conducting trade draws because, according to a recent Statistics Canada report, there are much fewer job opportunities in the trade and transportation sectors. That being said, we continue to anticipate a targeted draw for trade occupations—at least one in 2024.

Next Express Entry Draw Expectations

Based on current trends and policy pronouncements, several trends and projections can be made for 2024.

1. Higher CRS cutoff scores for general or all-program draws

It is anticipated that the CRS cutoff scores will stay high, probably above 550 points. This illustrates how the Express Entry method is competitive and how having highly skilled people in the pool is important.

2. Frequent francophone focus draws

To accomplish the francophone targets, category-based draws aimed at individuals with high proficiency in French are expected to occur more frequently. This is in line with Canada’s objective of fostering linguistic diversity through expanding immigration of francophones outside of Quebec.

3. Targeted draws for specific sectors

Express Entry draws with a focus on particular industries, like STEM and healthcare, ought to go on, however, it’s anticipated that the cutoff score will rise above that of earlier, comparable draws. These deliberate draws assist Canada’s economic growth by addressing gaps in the labor market.

4. Potential for larger draws

Even if draws in 2024 are probably going to be competitive, there’s less chance of bigger draws because the IRCC may be preparing to lower immigration targets in November. If this occurs, Express Entry will become even more competitive as the CRS cut-off scores increase.

CRS Score Cut-off Prediction

The CRS cutoff score for the upcoming Express Entry lottery is harder to predict than it was a few months ago, but here are our estimates. The frequency of drawings and the number of invitation rounds in the upcoming weeks will be critical factors in deciding the CRS cut-offs. Applicants should keep a careful eye on these trends to assess their chances and make appropriate plans.

Several intricately intertwined factors, including immigration targets, processing capacity, policy objectives, and labor market needs, influence when the IRCC conducts Express Entry drawings. Even if there is less predictability than there was before the epidemic, IRCC’s flexible strategy makes sure that the Express Entry system is nonetheless sensitive to Canada’s changing immigration objectives.

In this competitive environment, candidates should remain aware of these factors and modify their approaches to increase their chances of being awarded an ITA.