Pierre Poilievre Pushes for Mass Deportations in Canada | Canada Immigration

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s new immigration strategy hinges on a significant reduction in the population. This plan could result in the largest outflow of people from Canada since the 1940s. Many economists question the feasibility of such a drastic measure.

To slow record population growth, the government aims to see 2.4 million non-permanent residents either leave or change their immigration status within the next two years. At the same time, officials expect 1.5 million new temporary arrivals during this period.

This projected net loss of approximately 900,000 international students, laborers, and other non-permanent residents equates to just over 2% of Canada’s current population. To put this in perspective, it’s similar to removing the entire population of Indiana from the United States.

The New Population Strategy

The government’s plan, which anticipates a slight population decline, marks a significant shift from previous trends. Canada has witnessed a population boom that has strained housing, jobs, and public services. Once a strong advocate for mass migration, Trudeau is now reconsidering his approach. This change comes amid declining public support for immigration and poor polling numbers for his Liberal Party.

For this new strategy to succeed, a significant number of people must leave when their temporary visas expire. In the coming year alone, the government estimates that 1.3 million non-permanent residents will lose their status.

This figure represents more than double the number from any previous year. While the majority are expected to leave, the government has set aside about 158,000 permanent residency spots for them. Some may also qualify for new temporary visas.

Details of the Plan

Unlike U.S. President Donald Trump, Trudeau’s government has not proposed mass deportations. The progressive prime minister seems unlikely to take such an approach. However, he has committed to enhancing border security to address threats from undocumented migrants entering the U.S. Currently, this issue is relatively minor at the northern border.

Economists express skepticism about the government’s ability to achieve these population reduction goals. Henry Lotin, a consultant who has advised Statistics Canada, stated, “It’s highly unlikely the government will achieve a population decline because the level of departures they’re forecasting isn’t realistic.”

Experts Weigh In

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has echoed this sentiment, highlighting uncertainty about how quickly these changes might happen. Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux, a fiscal watchdog, cautioned that there’s “significant risk” to the government’s projections, particularly regarding estimated outflows.

Lotin, who founded the consulting firm Integrative Trade and Economics, noted that many temporary residents will seek ways to remain in Canada. He estimates that around 2 million of the 3 million temporary residents in the country wish to stay permanently.

Voices from the Community

Many individuals are vocal about their desire to remain in Canada. Groups of foreign students and workers have organized rallies across the country, advocating for their right to stay. In Brampton, Ontario, a popular destination for Indian immigrants, protesters have established an ongoing encampment. They chant slogans like “good enough to work, good enough to stay” and hold signs that read “fair pathway to permanent residency.”

Serious Consequences for Non-Permanent Residents

If non-permanent residents cannot transition to permanent residency or obtain new temporary visas, they may consider applying for asylum. Some might even attempt to remain in Canada without authorization. The country is already witnessing a rise in asylum claims among foreign students. Currently, Canada lacks a clear understanding of the number of undocumented migrants within its borders.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada has stated that it lacks accurate figures on undocumented individuals. However, academic estimates range from 20,000 to 500,000. Benjamin Tal, the deputy chief economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, warned in 2023 that Statistics Canada may be undercounting the population. He suggested that the agency assumes visa overstayers have left, which may not be accurate.

Canada Border Services Agency’s Role

The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) expects foreign nationals to comply with the conditions of their entry and to leave when their authorized stay ends. If the agency learns of a foreign national who has overstayed, it may seek an exclusion order. This order compels them to leave and prevents re-entry for one year without written authorization.

The CBSA stated, “If it is determined that the foreign national poses a risk of flight or non-compliance with the exclusion order, the CBSA has the option of detaining the foreign national.” However, the agency emphasizes that detention is a measure of last resort.

As of November, the CBSA had issued removal orders for fewer than 4,000 foreign nationals this year due to visa non-compliance. This figure aligns closely with the previous two years. The agency notes that the “serious consequences” of overstaying, including the potential impact on re-entry, serve as a strong incentive to adhere to immigration laws.

Political Reactions

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has called for a clear plan to ensure that individuals leave when their visas expire. He has also raised concerns that an increase in undocumented migrants could lead to heightened tensions with the United States, Canada’s largest trading partner.

Uncertain Future

While Statistics Canada has pushed back against Tal’s estimate of undercounting the population by as much as 1 million, it has revised its methodology. The agency now assumes that visa overstayers leave after 120 days, rather than the previous 30 days. Recently, it gained access to entry and exit data from airports and land crossings, allowing for better integration of this information.

Tal emphasized the importance of accurate forecasting, stating, “Forecasting is tough but necessary.” Population growth estimates are crucial for economists predicting inflation and gross domestic product. These estimates also help municipalities and provinces plan for housing and service demands. The Bank of Canada will update its forecasts in January but has previously refrained from fully incorporating Trudeau’s immigration policies, given their potential impracticality.

If the government successfully reduces the population by 0.2% in 2025 and 2026, it would be a “clear overcorrection,” according to Rebekah Young, head of inclusion and resilience economics at the Bank of Nova Scotia. She argued that a tighter job market would likely drive inflation higher. On the other hand, David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research suggested that reduced consumer demand could ease price pressures. The Bank of Canada acknowledges that these opposing forces limit the overall inflation impact.

In conclusion, Canada’s immigration landscape is shifting dramatically. The government’s ambitious plans to reduce the population face numerous challenges. As non-permanent residents navigate their uncertain futures, the broader implications for Canada’s economy and society remain to be seen.